Australia’s real unemployment is higher than you think – 9.4% in July

A total of 2.462 million (18.8%) Australians were unemployed or under-employed in July – the 22nd straight month more than 2 million Australians were looking for work or looking for more work;

The Roy Morgan real unemployment figures are always substantially higher than the ABS estimate

So what is the “REAL” unemployment rate in Australia?

According to Roy Morgan Research in July 1.236 million Australians were unemployed (9.4% of the workforce).

The good news is that this is is down 129,000 (1.1%) from a year ago.

An additional 1.226 million (9.4%) Australians under-employed (looking for work or looking for more work), up 55,000 (0.4%). 

• A total of 2.462 million (18.8%) Australians were unemployed or under-employed in July – the 22nd straight month more than 2 million Australians were looking for work or looking for more work;
• 11,854,000 Australians were employed in July – a substantial increase of 212,000 over the past year (just under 20,000 jobs added per month);
• The increase in employment was driven by a large jump in part-time employment which rose 196,000 to 4,155,000 and a small increase in full-time employment which rose 16,000 to 7,699,000;
• The Roy Morgan real unemployment figures are substantially higher than the current ABS estimate for June 2017 (5.6%).

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source October 2005 – July 2017. Average monthly interviews 4,000.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says Australian employment has grown significantly over the past year but most new jobs have been part-time:

“The Australian economy has been generating new jobs over the past year with 212,000 new jobs keeping the economy ticking over despite a rare quarter of negative growth in the September quarter 2016 (-0.5%).

“However, although new jobs are being created, they are primarily part-time in nature with around 90% of new jobs (196,000) part-time positions compared to only 16,000 full-time jobs. This increasing casualisation of the Australian workforce now sees 35.1% of working Australians employed part-time – up from 34% a year ago.   

“The growing share of the workforce in part-time employment leads directly to Australia’s largely ignored problem of under-employment – now at 1.226 million Australians (9.4%) and as significant a portion of the workforce as unemployed Australians – 1.236 million (9.4%).

“Finding work for 2.462 million Australians unemployed or under-employed is the Government’s largest challenge despite what the media may talk about on a continual basis. This large cohort of Australians looking for new employment opportunities will ultimately judge the Government’s success or otherwise based on whether an improving economy is generating sufficient jobs.

“A recent Roy Morgan survey on the ‘Most Important Problems Facing Australia’ revealed Unemployment was clearly the largest Economic issue mentioned by Australians ahead of The Economy, interest rates and Housing affordability. See here for further detail.”

*The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work. (Unfortunately the ABS does not release this figure in their monthly unemployment survey results).