What are the leading indicators telling us about Queensland?

It is no secret that Queensland has lagged the best performing capital cities over the past decade. 

But some key indicators are starting to turn the corner and I am using the term “green shoots” to describe these changes.

While there is still a way to go before things really start to ramp up here in Queensland the early signs are positive.

Let me show you some of these leading indicators that are finally starting to head in the right direction;

Macro Indicators

As it has been well documented, Interest Rates have been at historical lows.

Whether you are of the belief that the next move is up or down, rates should stay relatively for the short term, being at least the next 3 years. 

This will give both home owners and investors some certainty and confidence and while property is still affordable like Queensland, it may even entice renters to become home owners.

The Exchange Rate and strength of the Australian Dollar is also another key factor for Queensland as a lot of our economy is so reliant on tourism.

The dollar has been in decline for a number of years now from highs of US $1.05 in 2013 to now be hovering around the US78c mark.

This has led to an increase in tourist numbers which has led to a large increase in money injected into the economy and spending on things like Hotels and Restaurants have skyrocketed.

With low interest rates, more money being injected into the economy and local businesses, it is no surprise to see another key indicator on the rise – consumer confidence;

So, key factors on a Macro level appear to be looking fairly positive overall over the short term.

Micro Indicators  

At a micro level, we are looking at more local factors specific to Queensland.

Employment has been a general concern for Queenslanders, especially with the end of the Mining Boom in northern parts of the state.

In fact, jobs growth has been in a steady decline since the Global Financial Crisis in 2008.

A big turning point came in August this year with Employment growth reaching 10 year highs.

While this is one piece of the puzzle, unfortunately our Unemployment rate trends consistently above 6% and Wages Growth has all but stalled.

These are two indicators that must improve for Queensland to turn the corner and for our economy and then our property prices to start growing at a higher rate.

When people are employed and wages are rising they are more likely to want to buy a new home or invest in property.

Higher Migration levels are another leading indicator that will see an increase in demand for housing in Queensland.

As a result of the mining boom ending and a lack jobs, both interstate and overseas migration had fallen significantly.

Importantly though, this is also starting to turn the corner and people are returning to the sunshine state.

Summary

On a Marco level, key factors are looking positive, interest rates should remain low for the short term, as should the Australian Dollar. 

A word of caution though, there is almost always some kind of economic shock or X Factor each decade and no doubt this trend will continue as world events affect our local markets.

Queensland will also need to ensure they continue to create a lot more jobs on a more consistent basis and wages will need to start growing again.

The construction and infrastructure boom will help over the short term, but longer-term options will become an important factor.

On the plus side, some of our biggest employment hubs are expanding and this will help transition our economy and drive more people to Queensland.

Early days, but the signs are looking positive.